Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-02 19.125912 23.098828 27.503746 32.723806 38.713781 45.344766 53.211973
2025-03-09 13.120059 18.213464 24.481473 32.645928 42.873290 55.129799 70.784311
2025-03-16 9.115046 14.243922 21.124601 30.785127 43.723654 60.161599 82.291220
2025-03-23 7.405750 12.750893 20.434746 31.867634 47.968513 69.316530 99.158247
2025-03-30 5.772019 10.942914 18.893479 31.390544 49.824035 75.224992 111.936238
2025-04-06 5.007759 10.293607 18.883865 32.994486 54.578653 85.218298 130.637223
2025-04-13 3.671853 8.362794 16.529781 30.680642 53.280395 86.492886 137.181305
2025-04-20 3.105303 7.680306 16.089490 31.269909 56.314047 94.075681 152.947884
2025-04-27 2.682055 7.173587 15.857733 32.132701 59.777074 102.418532 170.152813
2025-05-04 2.361243 6.801730 15.801415 33.254821 63.689250 111.594165 188.953333
2025-05-11 2.037732 6.342830 15.500825 33.884687 66.788905 119.622242 206.321478
2025-05-18 1.675090 5.693151 14.713710 33.516662 68.128597 124.892496 219.632638
2025-05-25 1.306751 4.954531 13.698412 32.759501 69.016860 129.950164 233.638329
2025-06-01 1.050413 4.434664 13.072837 32.709881 71.207442 137.357473 251.901305
2025-06-08 0.750822 3.648904 11.661424 30.847831 69.868664 138.727536 260.455953
2025-06-15 0.648067 3.461013 11.653897 31.932218 74.132851 149.840213 285.385182
2025-06-22 0.503243 3.048034 10.979133 31.454355 75.311969 155.618703 301.666079
2025-06-29 0.452234 2.980329 11.216179 33.060910 80.714614 169.099731 331.413695
2025-07-06 0.304192 2.395800 9.855999 30.743289 77.977987 167.805842 335.910473
2025-07-13 0.253618 2.236581 9.712898 31.333524 81.272820 177.636881 359.947623
2025-07-20 0.216182 2.121643 9.682546 32.197724 85.198321 188.800676 386.699839
2025-07-27 0.188231 2.042284 9.751386 33.321667 89.751524 201.327514 416.271813
2025-08-03 0.157275 1.918167 9.639150 33.952550 93.260346 212.012014 442.910798